The Simple Economics of the War in Ukraine Republicans Can't Understand

Defeating Russia today is cheaper than defending against a victorious Russia tomorrow.

The war in Ukraine has been like any war — horrible. Hundreds of thousands of innocent people have died, and all of this is thanks to Russia and its fascist leader, Vladimir Putin. If there is a God, Putin will spend eternity alive in an acid bath. Glory to Ukraine! 

There is another side of the story that Republicans in Congress, however, are missing. It’s really just basic math, folks. I guess that is why it is so difficult for them to understand. The inherent Republican inability to understand consequences, like what happens if we add one number to another (it changes by the value of that number) or what happens when dividing, subtracting, or multiplying? These are all simple mathematical functions, but they are tricky for modern Republicans nonetheless.

Let’s take a quick look at the math behind the war in Ukraine. Over the past two years, the United States has given the country close to $70 billion in aid, of which $46 billion has gone directly to military support. Some estimates say the Russian army has lost 90 percent of the pre-war army dedicated to fighting in Ukraine and defending the western parts of Russia. The losses to the military overall are worse.

 “Russia has lost nearly half the combat effectiveness of its army,” Radakin said. “Last year it fired 10mn artillery shells but at best can produce 1mn shells a year. It has lost 2,500 tanks and at best can produce 200 [new] tanks a year,” he said (Russia Has Lost Half Its Combat Capability).

When you think of the nearly 300,000 who have been killed in the war so far, along with the hundreds of thousands physically and psychologically wounded, the longer this war goes on, the weaker Russia becomes for decades into the future. Not that Russia’s officers were any good, to begin with, but I am sure among the thousands killed so far, there was a handful who knew something about modern warfare tactics. 

Had they not been led by a glorified ambulance driver (that is where he started back in the 1990s), Russia’s incompetent Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, then maybe they could’ve been more effective. This discussion is now moot as those officers are all dead, leaving future troops without effective instructors. The first day of training for soldiers in Russia’s future army will cover the “meat wave.” How can you run fast and zig-zag just enough to avoid bullets — or not and die?

The current state of Russia’s military is appalling. NATO has enjoyed watching as Russia fires super-lauded missiles that sometimes do what they are supposed to do and other times prove to be duds. NATO has watched how Three Stooges-incompetent Russia’s forces have been, and if you think NATO doctrine isn’t adapting to this mess, then you are wrong.

The United States spent $13.1 trillion or $258 billion annually defending the “free world” from the Soviet Union between 1948 and 1996. In the past two years, we have spent less than 5 percent of our defense budget on arming Ukraine, and look at what has happened to the Russian military.

I would say this is money well spent. Regrettably, however, Republicans are just too blinded by stupidity and hate to realize this very, very simple math. An all-out war with Russia will end life on Earth — some in the Republican Party want this because then it finally gets them to judgment day. But even a contained, non-nuclear war with Russia will cost the U.S. 10 or 20 times more than we are today giving to Ukraine. 

Even just to prevent a war would have substantial costs for the United States — again, something the political whores in the Republican Party led by raving lunatics and Trump don’t get.

To deter and defend against a renewed Russian threat following a full Russian victory in Ukraine the United States will have to deploy to Eastern Europe a sizable portion of its ground forces. The United States will have to station in Europe a large number of stealth aircraft. Building and maintaining those aircraft is intrinsically expensive, but challenges in manufacturing them rapidly will likely force the United States to make a terrible choice between keeping enough in Asia to defend Taiwan and its other Asian allies and deterring or defeating a Russian attack on a NATO ally. The entire undertaking will cost a fortune, and the cost will last as long as the Russian threat continues — potentially indefinitely (The High Price of Losing Ukraine).

The consequences of inaction and the theory of opportunity cost, however, are the really tricky math “thingies” that betwixt the frail minds of Republicans these days. To be fair, this is the party of cutting taxes and watching tax revenue grow! Maybe math just doesn’t work anymore for them.